The focus for the session was on the official November PMIs from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Both manufacturing and services PMIs missed estimates and fell below October readings. It was the second month in a row for manufacturing in contraction. The initial market response was to sell ‘risk’ with AUD/USD, for example, lower by only a few tics. The thing about poor data from China, though, is that it quickly rekindles hopes for more stimulus, and indeed the slight softness in risk was soon reversed on such hope. AUD/USD, for example, has moved to its session high above 0.6640. NZD/USD caught a bid also, helped along by comments earlier in the session from RBNZ Governor Orr which were a restatement of some of his hawkish comments yesterday both as part of the RBNZ policy statement and his follow-up press conference.

As I post both AUD and NZD are close to their highs, untroubled by the news of another Chinese property developer default.

While on the subject of central banks, we had Bank of Japan policy board member Nakamura speaking, pushing back against speculation of any near-term BOJ pivot away from loose policy. More in the points above. USD/JPY has traded in a stable and small range circa 147.00 during the day.

Still to come is the OPEC+ meeting today, scheduled for 1500 GMT, which is 1000 US Eastern time. Discussion will centre on further output cuts.

aud china pmi wrap chart 30 November 2023

As an aside, if you looking for more cheerful news it’d pay to check out analysis from the China International Capital Corporation (CICC). CICC is a partially state-owned multinational investment management and financial services company. Analysts at the firm have been barred from sharing negative comments about the economy or markets in both public and private discussions says an internal memo sent to its research department this month.