Both China’s November manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs missed estimates and slumped under the October reading, heading more deeply into contraction. Given widespread COVID outbreaks and associated lockdowns and other restrictions the results are not too much of a shock. China’s National Bureau of Statistics noted slowing on both the demand and production sides.

Australian monthly CPI data was published today. The headline came in at 6.9% y/y (from the previous month’s 7.3%) while ‘core’ trimmed mean inflation was unchanged on the month at 5.3%. The Australian Bureau of Statistics implemented their annual reweighting of components in the data today. If this was not done the headline would have been 7.1% instead of 6.9%. Some of the reweightings are curious. That for rental costs was weighted lower, at a time when rents are surging in response to the housing shortage. Power costs (electricity) were also taken lower at a time of surging energy prices. Curious indeed.

The monthly CPI needs to be interpreted with care as it excludes around 30% of the quarterly CPI, including energy. The 6.9% figure, though, will keep the Reserve Bank of Australia on its rate hike path next week (the meeting is Tuesday, December 6 local time) at a +0.25% move.

In further data, both South Korean and Japanese industrial production data came in worse than expected. The South Korean data showed factory output fell at its fastest m/m since May of 2020, early in the pandemic. South Korea is often viewed as a leading indicator for the global economy; the contraction in factory production, with service sector output slumping too, is a negative sign.

From New Zealand, business activity indicators fell further, as did business confidence in the most recent ANZ NZ Business Outlook survey. Inflation expectations hit a record high.

EUR and GBP both gained against the US dollar during the session. The magnitude of moves was small. Bitcoin rose back above US$17K at one stage.

btc wrap 30 November 2022