- China vice fin min says must increase fiscal support for the economy
- PBOC deputy governor says will improve 'regulatory oversight' of digital economy
- CNH jumps, PMIs come in better than expected for both manufacturing and services
- China March Official PMI: Manufacturing 51.9 (expected 51.5) Services 58.2 (exp 54.3)
- IMF says is sees the prospect and potential for more flexibility in BOJ YCC policy
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8717 (vs. estimate at 6.8718)
- Japan finance minister Suzuki says will leave monetary policy to the BOJ & Ueda to decide
- The UK will join 11 other countries in a major Asia-Pacific trade partnership
- Australian data: February private sector credit +0.3% m/m (prior +0.4%)
- RBA April 4 meeting poll - analysts evenly split on +25bp hike vs. pause
- Japan February Retail Sales +1.4% m/m (vs. expected -0.3%)
- Japan data - February Industrial production (preliminary) +4.5% m/m (expected +2.7%)
- Japan data: February unemployment rate 2.6% (vs, 2.4% expected)
- Japan data - Tokyo area headline CPI in March 3.3% y/y (expected 3.2%)
- Australia builder collapse: rising costs, supply chain delays, labor shortage, demand drop
- More on the OPEC committee meeting next week (JMMC) - confirmation of no change in output
- Reports that Japan will set up a panel to discuss digital yen
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia expect an RBA pause at the April 4th meeting
- Credit Suisse sees scope for EUR/USD to continue towards 1.1250 over the coming weeks
- Former US President Trump has been indicted in New York after porn star payment
- New Zealand data - March consumer inflation expectations hit a 9 month high
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 30 Mar: The USD lower. Higher stocks lessens safety flows
- ICYMI - US Treas Sec Yellen spoke on financial stability
- Trade ideas thread - Friday, 31 March 2023
During the week we’ve been seeing supportive policy and supportive comments out of China:
- the People’s Bank of China injected 800m+ yuan in open market operations
- China's Premier Li Qiang said the economy was on the improve, March is even better than in January and February
Today we had
- PMIs remaining solidly in expansion (see bullets above)
- And promises of further economic support from the Vice Finance Minister (see bullets above)
China’s yuan moved lower up until Thursday but today jumped to a new high for the week. Albeit helped along by flows back out of USD.
Also in the news today were plenty of data from Japan. Retail sales and industrial output coming in better than expectations, while Tokyo CPI was slightly above expectations on all three measures (headline, core, and core-cor, see bullets above). The unemployment rate ticked up but from, and to, a still very low level.
From Australia we had reports of construction sector firms entering liquidation with reasons cited including rising input costs, supply chain delays, labour shortages, and a drop in demand for new homes in 2023. Rapidly rising interest rates are also playing a role, of course.
In geo-politics the headline was that the Turkish parliament ratified Finland's membership of NATO. This clears the way for the country to join the alliance. Sweden’s pending membership is not clear yet.
In local US politics, former President Trump will be indicted. He has indicated, through his lawyers, he’ll be turning himself in on April 4 in New York.
Apart from the yuan USD/JPY was a mover, scaling as high as over 133.40 before retracing back below 133.00. Its not far below as I post. EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP, CAD have all climbed against the USD with varying degrees of retracement. Adding small to their Thursday gains.
Asian equity markets:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 +0.82%
China’s Shanghai Composite +0.29%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +1.85%
South Korea’s KOSPI +1.05%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 +0.71%