- Goldman Sachs is forecasting an initial rate cut from the Bank of England in June 2024
- Deutsche Bank on Powell's "breaking out the punchbowl early"
- BOJ meet next week - no change to policy expected, but could come as soon as January
- ICYMI - US regulator (SEC) will take a “new look” at spot bitcoin ETF applications
- Reports that China is likely to set 2024 growth target at around 5%
- China's economic recovery: NBS anticipates meeting full-year targets
- Westpac NZ forecasts no rate hikes, or cuts, from the RBNZ in 2024
- Ex-Fed Dallas head Kaplan says not to overreact to Powell - rate hike options left open
- China November industrial output +6.6% y/y (exp +5.6%) Retail Sales +10.1% (exp +12.5%)
- China November new home prices -0.3% m/m (prior also -0.3%)
- People's Bank of China set MLF rate at 2.5% (expected 2.5%, prior 2.5%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7. 0957 (vs. estimate at 7.1132)
- Japan preliminary manufacturing PMI for December falls to 47.7 (prior 48.3)
- People's Bank of China to boost liquidity with Medium-term Lending (MLF) injection today
- UK Data - December consumer confidence rises to -22 from -24 in November
- BlackRock expects Fed rate cuts in spring-summer, bank analysts predict multiple easings
- Bank of England holds policy rate amidst hawkish tone, GBP rises
- UBS says 3 rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024 is not really an easing of policy
- Australian Preliminary PMIs for December improve but remain in contraction
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 14 Dec: ECB and BOE less dovish leads to USD declines
- US Treas Yellen says artificial intelligence added to a list of risks to financial system
- New Zealand data: November manufacturing PMI 46.7 (up from 42.5 in October)
- US equity close: Rotation evident as some selling hits the big names
- Trade ideas thread - Friday, 15 December, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
USD/JPY had more decent-sized swings again today, from around 141.80 it traded to (briefly) above 142.40 before dropping all the way back to where it began. We had lower-tier data from Japan today, not enough to point a finger at to blame for the move(s). Yen is likely to keep on moving in a volatile fashion ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting next week, on the 18th and 19th, and, I suspect, beyond.
AUD, NZD, CAD all traded a little higher against the USD. Eyes were on China where it was a mixed bag today:
- the People’s Bank of China set the CNY at its highest reference rate since early June;
- the PBoC injected a whopping 1.45tln yuan at today’s Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) rate setting and rollover; 650bn yuan matured which left a monthly injection of 800bn yuan, its biggest ever;
- Chinese economic activity data for November indicated a beat for Industrial Production, a miss for Retail Sales, and property-related indicators that remained very weak indeed, with falling investment, sales and prices.
Offshore yuan (CNH) has traded strongly during the day so far, helping support China-related trades (such as AUD).
Offshore yuan higher, 5-minute candles:
