- Federal Reserve Chair Powell is speaking on Tuesday
- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Haskel is speaking on inflation on Monday
- Bank of America doubts over US inflation returning to 2% - "gimme shelter (disinflation)"
- Analysts wary on the EUR in the wake of the French election
- UK Chancellor Reeves speaks Monday: Focus on making economic growth a “national mission”
- Australian housing finance data for May -1.7% m/m (prior +4.8%)
- Bitcoin, Ether both slammed lower
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1286 (vs. estimate at 7.2640)
- RBNZ Monetary Policy Review due Wednesday - "not expecting a whole lot"
- BlackRock's Rieder: generous yielding fixed income assets - historically attractive value
- US$1.2bn in cryptocurrency, DeFi losses in H1 of 2024 due to hacks, scams, & exploits
- Japan inflation adjusted wages -1.4% y/y in May
- People's Bank of China bought zero gold for a second month in a row in June
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand policy meeting this week - preview (on hold widely expected)
- Goldman Sachs on the US jobs data on Friday: NFP report overall was "softer-than-expected"
- BCC survey shows fewer UK firms plan to raise their prices in the coming months
- The one critical number to watch for an August Reserve Bank Australia interest rate hike
- ICYMI: Swiss National Bank Chair Jordan ready "to intervene in FX market" if necessary
- Weekend WSJ (Timiraos): "Case for September Rate Cut Builds After Slower Jobs Data"
- French election result - looks like a hung parliament
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 8 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 08 July 2024 - EUR a touch lower
Weekend:
- Newsquawk Week Ahead: US CPI, Powell testimony and US earnings
- Weekly Market Outlook (08-12 July)
- The inflation scare is over: The pandemic was a perfect storm
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 5 Jul: NFP for June sent the USD lower/yields tumbling
EUR/USD gapped lower in the early hours of Asia, prior to much liquidity being available. The move was in response to the outcome of the French election, with no one party coming close to a majority and the prospect of a hung parliament looming. The right-wing National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen failed to live up to high expectations, coming in 3rd. The left-wign alliance outperformed, placed ahead of Macron’s centrist. While the risk of a far-right government has dropped for now, we'll have to see how the centre and left can cobble together a coalition majority, if not there will be ongoing instability ahead.
After its move lower EUR/USD recovered to (almost) cover its gap.
From Japan we had wages data for May, with a mixed bad of results. Base pay came in at its best since January 1993, while nominal wages were the best in 11 months. So far, so good. The ‘but’ is that real wages fell for a record 26th month in a row. USD/JPY has fallen a little on the session.
The People’s Bank of China set the USD/CNY reference rate back on the 7.12 big figure today. The Bank announced that in additional to its daily Open Market Operations (OMOs) in the morning, it will also carry out temporary OMOs in the afternoon to manage liquidity in the banking system. The CNH showed some strength today.
Across major FX ranges were fairly subdued.
BTC and ETH, and other crypto, fell, with no fresh, clear, obvious catalyst.
EUR/USD:
