The big news was this from Sunday:
Other:
- Reserve Bank of Australia meet Tuesday, 4 April 2023, UBS are looking for a pause
- RBNZ meet this week - Shadow Board recommends a smaller OCR increase of 25 basis points
- Chicago's CME opened options trading for Chinese yuan futures on Monday, 03 April 2023
- China Caixin / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for March 50.0 (51.7 expected)
- Australia housing finance data for February: Home loans -0.9% m/m vs. -1.8% expected
- Australia February building permits +4.0% m/m (vs. expected -2.6%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.8805 (vs. estimate at 6.8820)
- Australia March monthly inflation 0.3% m/m (prior 0.4%) - private survey CPI from TD/MI
- Japan Jibun / S&P Global Manufacturing PMI March 2023: 49.2 (prior 47.7)
- BOJ compares downbeat manufactures vs. upbeat service providers
- Bank of Japan Q1 Tankan survey shows a small rise in inflation expectations
- Australia March manufacturing PMI 49.1 (prior 50.5)
- Oil price gap surge higher after the shock weekend OPEC+ news (swingeing output cut)
- Goldman Sachs raise their oil price forecast citing after OPEC+ ouputcuts
- Goldman Sachs is expecting a Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate hike tomorrow
- Yen down, CAD up after the shock OPEC news over the weekend (shock swingeing output cut)
- ECB's De Guindos said headline CPI likely to fall in 2023 , underlying CPI to stay firm
- New Zealand - Fonterra cuts Farmgate Milk Price
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 3 April 2023
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 03 April 2023
- Week Ahead Preview: Highlights include NFP, ISM, RBA , RBNZ, BoJ Tankan, BoC BOS
- Is gold on the verge of a big short?
- It quarter end. How did the major currency pairs vs the USD do? What levels to eye in 2Q
OPEC announced oil production cuts above 1m barrels per day over the weekend. The signalling from OPEC+ prior to the shock announcement was that it’d be holding oil supply steady. The announcement jolted markets. Asian forex markets begin trading early on Monday morning in New Zealand in ultra-thin liquidity conditions. The response was a marking higher of USD/JPY (lower yen) and lower USD/CAD (higher CAD). Australia is the next FX market to open, followed by Tokyo, Singapore and Hong Kong. USD/JPY and USD/CAD have since filled in their earlier gaps. The USD, though, is higher against major FX across the board as inflation fears returned, as did concerns over slower economic growth, due to higher oil prices.
Oil futures began trading at 6pm Sunday US Eastern time. The response was a gap higher, which was foreshadowed by yen and CAD many hours prior. After the initial jump the move has been back into the gap although as I post its not even close to having been filled.
There were data from the region today, see bullets above, but the focus was on oil market developments.
Asian equity markets:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 +0.39%
China’s Shanghai Composite +0.41%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -0.17%
South Korea’s KOSPI -0.16%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 +0.76%
Bids for energy and related stocks helped local equities.
Oil:
