- Don't mention a Fed pivot - its not helping
- ECB's Villeroy - Need to strongly and quickly regulate crypto assets internationally
- ICYMI - Crypto Exchange AAX Suspends Withdrawals
- Recap of Fed's Barr - "weaker economy could put stress on households and businesses"
- Magnitude 4.7 earthquake near Valparaiso, Chile
- China blames slowing economic recovery on COVID outbreaks
- Japan's economy & trade minister Nishimura says would prefer stability in forex rates
- China October data - retail sales fall y/y, industrial production up
- Early preview of one and five year PBOC rate setting due on Monday 21 November
- PBOC injects 850bn yuan via a 1-year MLF, rate unchanged at 2.75%
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.0421 (vs. estimate at 7.0420)
- RBA November meeting minutes: Not ruling out larger hikes ahead, or a pause
- Japan finance minister Suzuki says not seeing FTX impact spread beyond crypto market
- PBOC is expected to set the USD/CNY reference rate at 7.0420 – Reuters estimate
- Morgan Stanley forecasts for 2023 include a topping USD, higher Brent crude
- Japan data - Q3 GDP (preliminary) -1.2% q/q (annualized) vs. +1.1% expected)
- AUD traders note - "Australian supply chains are facing chaos"
- Australian weekly consumer confidence survey rose 2.7% w/w
- Uk media report on an imminent rise in the basic wage rate
- Fed's Barr says inflation is far too high
- Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway bought more than US$4.1 bn of stock in TSMC
- Goldman Sachs Research targets USD/JPY to 155 in 3-months
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 15 November 2022
- US authorities charge S&P ratings - marketing considerations influence ratings
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Brainard highlights slowing pace of hikes
- Stocks recover all losses into the afternoon trading, but then stumble and fall
USD/JPY rose back towards 140.50 in Tokyo morning trade. The only fresh data from Japan was Q3 GDP (preliminary) which was a huge miss (see bullets above). If you are looking for a reason for the weaker yen on the session so far this’ll work. It adds to the case for no pivot from the Bank of Japan any time soon.
We also had poor data from China. October retail sales, industrial production and investment data all missed. Retail sales contracted y/y. This poor data adds to the case for a COVID-policy pivot out of China, and further support for the property market. We’ve had Chinese authorities moving this way, especially over the weekend (see yesterday’s wrap for a rundown on the new policy moves from China). Having said this, high COVID numbers in major city Guangzhou have prompted lockdowns there.
Also from China today we had a 1 tln yuan maturing medium-term lending facility. This was partially rolled over with a fresh 850 tln yuan MLF. Other long-term loan measures made up the shortfall. The other interesting item in this was the unchanged rate, at 2.75%. This indicates that no change in the one- and five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPR) to be set on Monday, 21 November, by the People’s Bank of China is likely.
Elsewhere across major FX rates NZD/USD traded back to its overnight high. EUR lost ground against the USD.
Higher USD/JPY and NZD/USD translate to a rise for NZD/JPY:
