- Barclays says the yen is soon set to regain its status as a preeminent haven currency
- Westpac forecasts no change in RBA cash rate next week (previously at +25bp rate hike)
- Japan media report that the BOJ will conduct an examination of past monetary policy
- Australia PPI Q1 +1.0% q/q (prior +0.7%)
- Australian data - Private Sector Credit March +0.3% m/m (expected +0.3%)
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.9240 (vs. estimate at 6.9249)
- Japan to lift COVID-related border control measures from midnight April 29 (Japan time)
- BOJ says Ueda will hold a news conference at 0630 GMT (Kuroda did this after each meeting)
- ICYMI: JPMorgan artificial intelligence aims to decipher Fed speeches, give trade signals
- Japan data - Retail sales March +7.2% y/y (expected 5.8%)
- Japan data - Industrial production preliminary March +0.8% m/m (expected +0.5%)
- Japan data - March unemployment rate 2.8% (expected 2.5%)
- Japan data - Tokyo area headline CPI 3.5% y/y (expected 3.1%)
- UK data - Lloyds Bank Business Barometer gauge of confidence hits an 11 month high
- UK car production +6.1% y/y in March
- Morgan Stanley expects a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) +25bp rate hike next week
- New Zealand consumer confidence data still languishing at a deeply pessimist value
- ICYMI Goldman Sachs raised it forecast for the Bank of England terminal rate to 5%
- ICYMI: OPEC warns that the IEA should be ‘very careful’ about discouraging oil investments
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 27 Apr: Dow/S&P as best day since January. USD mixed.
- Fitch says that banking system stress in the US will further tighten credit markets
- Federal Reserve emergency lending rose again (week ending April 26)
- US stock indices close with solid gains. S&P index has its best day since January
- Trade ideas thread - Friday, 28 April 2023
It was a session spent waiting for the Bank of Japan policy meeting outcome.
While we waited we got inflation data from Japan, for the Tokyo area. This is viewed as a guide to nationwide inflation that will be published in around 3 weeks. The numbers came in higher than expected, and core-core inflation, which strips away both fresh food and fuel costs and is the measure of Japanese inflation that is closest to the US 'core' CPI, surged to its highest in 41 years. the Bank of Japan have been instantly telling us that inflation in Japan is transitory. So far it isn't. The Bank also forecast that it'll fall from around September/October. Many other central banks have been incorrect with the 'transitory' call.
Japanese media (Nikkei) published a piece saying their sources indicated
- the BOJ would forego revising YCC
- would conduct an examination of past monetary policy
- would consider changing its expression of forward guidance regarding the possibility of easing policy further (prompted, the Nikkei said by Japan’s announcement to lift COVID-related border control measures from midnight April 29 (Japan time)
The yen fell a little on this report after some initial choppiness, but not by much. USD/JPY moved above 134.20.
If you need a catch-up, BOJ previews are below, while we wait.
And, still to come is Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's press conference at 0630 GMT (0130 US Eastern time)
Asian equity markets:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 +0.7%
China’s Shanghai Composite +0.8%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +0.8%
South Korea’s KOSPI +0.4%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 +0.4%
Bank of Japan previews:
- BOJ meet this week - preview - YCC to be abandoned but not until July
- BOJ meeting preview - Deutsche Bank expect a policy revision, 3 scenarios
- Has BOJ Gov Ueda dismissed any change to YCC at this week's policy meeting? Looks like it
