- The "50 cent betting big on the Japanese yen trade" story is not what you think it is
- Iran's Foreign Minister has arrived in New York for talks on his Hamas terrorist attacks
- Japan PM says no contradiction between BOJ inflation aims and his government
- Senior Japan official: 'excessive' FX volatility, FX should move stably with fundamentals
- USD/JPY makes a new session high above 150.40
- Failure to act on high CPI threatens to damage the Reserve Bank of Australia's credibility
- European Central Bank meeting today - preview - hurdle for a rate hike is high
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1784 (vs. estimate at 7.3265)
- Japan Fin Min Suzuki says sticking to previous currency policy, closely watching FX moves
- US President Biden and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi expected to meet on Friday
- Australian Q3 Export prices -3.1% q/q (prior -8.5%)& Import prices +0.8% q/q (prior -0.8%)
- Westpac now forecasting a November Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike
- Japan fin min Suzuki says closely watching forex moves with a high sense of uergncy
- Goldman Sachs says a 2 to 3 week November US government shutdown is its base case
- RBA Bullock on inflation: "we're wary". On rates: "not sure if job is done"
- WSJ reports that US Auto Workers union & Ford expected to announce a deal
- RBA Bullock says inflation forecasts will change, not sure if change will be 'material'
- RBA Gov. Bullock says still considering whether CPI was a "material" change to outlook
- AUD/USD lower as RBA Gov. Bullock speaks
- RBA Bullock says CPI was a little higher than expected, but about where we thought it'd be
- UBS forecasts a November RBA interest rate hike, and likely more to come after that
- Bank of Canada interest rate pause continued, with a "clear hiking bias"
- RBNZ says it expects defaults to increase in agricultural lending portfolios
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 25 Oct: Stocks and bonds move lower. USD higher on the day
- Alarms, and phones, going off in BoJ bedrooms with USD/JPY above 150
- Powell does not comment on monetary policy or economic outlook in prepared remarks
- META schmeta .... check out USD/JPY!
- META Q3 2023 EPS USD 4.39 (beats estimate of 3.65)
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 26 October 2023
- NASDAQ index has its worse trading days since February 21
USD/JPY finally made a break for it above 150.00 in the US afternoon on Wednesday and that move extended to approach 150.50 during the Asia timezone. We had some ineffective jawboning out of Japan, from Finance Minister Suzuki and Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary which failed to halt the rise. Perhaps a counterfactual might be it would have gone higher without them but we’ll never know for sure.
As I update USD/JPY is sitting around 150.45. There was no fresh news apart from what was posted.
On the central bank front, it was Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock speaking again today. She dialled back her recent hawkish rhetoric, with much hand-wringing and hair-splitting about whether the rise in Australian inflation we had in the Q3 data on Wednesday was ‘material’ and would thus bring about another interest rate rise. Private sector analysts were quick to say the broad jump in CPI would prompt an RBA November rate hike, but Bullock didn’t jump on board today.
The Australian dollar fell away, and the initial move did seem correlated with her more pensive (and misplaced IMHO) comments but at the end of the day, at least as of writing this wrap, AUD was just one of the casualties of another strong day for the US dollar. EUR, NZD, GBP, CAD, CHF – all lower.
Oil and gold were fairly flat.
The crypto sector is putting up a fight, BTC/USD is trading just under $38K as I post:
