Movement during the session kicked off early with weakness for the USD as news crossed that advisors on Trump’s incoming economic team are considering a gradual implementation of tariffs, increasing them incrementally each month. The headline to the news focused on a plan to raise tariffs by 2% to 5% per month. The slower imposition is said to be aimed at strengthening Trump’s negotiating position while minimizing the risk of sudden inflation.

The USD dropped, with gains across the majors board for EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD (that had found an earlier bid on better business confidence in New Zealand in Q4 2024 – see bullets above) and more.

The moves persisted for an hour or so. They occurred soon after the New York close, the thinnest liquidity time of the 24-hour forex cycle (post-NY and pre-Tokyo, with only New Zealand and Australia active).

As I update we have had some retrace but the dollar is net weaker on the session.

You’ll notice, too, in scanning your charts for the session here, a spike in USD/JPY to 158.00 and thereabouts, with a quick retrace back to under 157.50. Bank of Japan deputy governor Himino spoke. The main thrust of his comments were not surprising, that the BOJ will raise rates if its outlook/forecast continue to be met. He added that there are risks both in Japan and abroad that require close attention.

Himino said the Bank of Japan will be debating a rate hike at its January 23/24 meeting given new quarterly growth and inflation forecasts. There were plenty more comments from him covering hot topics such as wage growth, the US economy and uncertainty as Trump began his term with as yet unknown policy changes.

My take on his remarks is that there is nothing of note that justified the sudden down draft in the yen. I am attributing the move to what I’ll call “market dynamics” or what interbank dealers out there might refer to as jamming of stops. The almost just as quick retrace of the jump is evidence enough for me.

USD/JPY:

usdyen himino stops wrap 14 January 2025 2