- Hong Kong is dialing back its COVID quarantine restricitons
- CFTC data summary - Speculators' net long bets on the U.S. dollar fell in the latest week
- WSJ: Iran, US close to reviving nuclear deal, but unclear Iran will accept the final deal
- RBNZ inflation expectations data due at 0300 GMT - rate hike coming next week
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7695 (vs. estimate at 6.7717)
- UN secretary-general Guterres says the threat of nuclear confrontation has returned
- Here are the 4 data points to come before the next rate hike from the FOMC (Daly missed 1)
- USD/JPY little changed after the Japanese data
- ICYMI - Goldman Sachs are bullish China equities 12 months out: +24%
- Weekend - Moody's has cut Italy's outlook to 'negative' (from 'stable')
- Oil - ANZ have revised down their short-term oil demand forecast for 2022 and 2023
- ETHUSD technical analysis
- Post-NFP FOMC rate hike forecasts: Goldman Sachs predict +50bp in September
- Post-NFP FOMC rate hike forecasts: JP Morgan predict +75bp in September
- NZD traders heads up - RBNZ inflation expectations data due Monday, 8 August 2022
- Trade ideas thread - Monday, 8 August 2022
- Italian politics (election due September 25) - centre-left alliance collapses
- US Senate passed the 'inflation reduction' act - now heads to the House for voting
- Fed's Daly: "inflation is too high ... the focus has to be on bringing inflation down"
- Monday morning open levels - indicative forex prices - 08 August 2022
- Weekend data - China's exports in June beat estimates and grew at their fastest this year
- Bitcoin technical analysis & trade idea (updated! See why we are aborting)
- A technical look at the major currency pairs for the week starting August 8, 2022
- Fed's Bowman says 75bp increases should be on the table until seen inflation declining
- Iran urges a "realistic response" from the US to Iranian proposals on nuclear deal
- China COVID update - China has locked down the beach resort city of Sanya
Major FX was characterised by higher yen crosses during the opening session of the week. USD/JPY tested its Friday high circa 135.50 but did not manage to follow through up further. Meanwhile AUD, NZD rose against the USD. EUR, CAD and GBP are little changed on the session, as is CHF (all against the USD).
News flow was decent over the weekend.
- The US Senate passed Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. It heads to the lower house for passing and then to his desk for signing into law.
- There appeared to be progress made on agreeing to Iran’s nuclear deal. This has been going on for months and while I say ‘appeared’ there also appears there is still work to be done.
- China’s July trade data was released over the weekend. Exports grew y/y at their fastest pace for the year.
From the Fed we had two speakers over the weekend, Bowman and Daly. Both flagged further rate hikes. Bowman seems more keen on +75 in September than does Daly, but there is still a good while to come before September 21. Plus 3 inflation readings (see bullets above) and another NFP report.