- RBNZ is "deliberately trying to engineer a recession in order to get inflation back down"
- Bloomberg reports that China's state-run iron ore group is preparing to begin buying
- US embassy has limited its visa activities in China due to COVID situation
- China says it'll ramp up COVID control in rural areas - more vaccination, more test kits
- Westpac affirm their forecast for RBA rate hikes to 3.85% by May 2023
- US Senate Stopgap Government Funding Bill has secured enough votes to pass
- Philadelphia Federal Reserve says 10K jobs were added in the US in Q2, NOT 1 million
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.9791 (vs. estimate at 6.9844)
- Japan Jibun preliminary (flash) manufacturing PMI for December 48.8 (prior 49.0)
- Singapore non oil exports fall 9.2% m/m and fall 14.6% y/y
- ICYMI - JP Morgan raised their 2023 growth forecast for China to 4.3% (from 4%)
- UK data - December consumer confidence -42 (prior -44)
- San Francisco's Mary Daly is today's designated Federal Reserve talking head
- Here's where the European Central Bank was not hawkish (spoiler - well flagged QT)
- ECB responses - Société Générale have raised their projected terminal rate to 3.75%
- ICYMI - JP Morgan boosted their European Central Bank terminal rate to 3.25%, from 2.5%
- Goldman Sachs issue a long USD/JPY trade recommendation
- Australian preliminary December PMI: Manufacturing 50.4 (prior 51.3), services 46.9 (47.6)
- ANZ forecasts New Zealand recession from 2Q 2023 - matching the NZ Treasury forecast
- New Zealand November Manufacturing PMI 47.4 (prior 49.3)
- Major stock indices take it on the chin today. Weaker than expected data/hawkish Fed hurt.
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: ECB turns hawkish, US retail sales disappoint
- Trade ideas thread - Friday, 16 December 2022
USD/JPY continued its gyrations here today, dipping after its strong Thursday gain toward 137.00. GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD all showed some strength against the USD after its huge surge on Thursday. EUR/USD was off its Thursday lows during the session here also. There was no specific fresh FX news to drive the moves.
Preliminary PMIs from Australia and Japan released today were generally poor. Australian manufacturing and services PMIs both fell, services further into contraction, as did Japan’s manufacturing index. Japan’s non-manufacturing PMI rose, helped along by the reopening of tourism more widely. The results provide a warning for the flash PMIs to come from Europe a little later.
News out of China is that the country's centralised iron ore purchasing group (only formed in the middle of this year), the state-sponsored China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), is about to begin buying operations. The group will consolidate purchases of raw iron ore material under a single state-owned buyer. This will no doubt impact US$160 bn iron ore trade, most likely with prices lower than they otherwise would be. Australia’s #1 export is iron ore. The news does not auger well for AUD (on the other hand, we all knew this was coming).
In political news, the US weekend government shutdown was averted. The Senate to fund the government through December 23. The House already approved the bill. It heads now to US President Biden for signing.
Speakers from the Federal Reserve will hit the circuit again today. Daly, Williams and Mester are all on the docket.
