- China Communist Party set for the biggest overhaul of its economic leadership in a decade
- Japan's Katayama: Japan lacks effective means to combat yen's sharp falls
- Refilling the US SPR at WTI under $80 "places a strong floor under prices"
- Ray Dalio sees the Federal Reserve hiking to 4.5%, so stocks will drop 20%
- Australia's AMP sees more RBA rate hikes but slowing, forecast 25bp in October
- AUD/USD little changed after the employment report miss, inching higher
- China's largest 4 banks have cut deposit rates
- Australian Jobs added +33.5K (expected +35K) & Unemployment rate 3.5% (expected 3.4%)
- PBOC inject 400bn yuan in one year MLF (600bn mature) - rate unchanged
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9101 (vs. estimate at 6.9153)
- Japanese business sentiment dropped (services especially) in September (Reuters Tankan)
- Australian inflation expectations are falling. September 5.4% vs. July 5.9%
- The probability of actual USD/JPY Bank of Japan intervention is low
- JP Morgan is not on board the 100bp FOMC September rate hike bus
- RUMOUR - Apple is ordering another 20mn iPhone 14 Pros from suppliers
- IYCMI - The Bank of England policy meeting today has been rescheduled to next week
- NZ's ASB expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise the cash rate to a terminal 4.25%
- People's Bank of China is widely expected to keep the MLF interest rate unchanged today
- Japan trade data (Aug): Exports +22.1% y/y (expected +23.6%) Imports +49.9% y/y (+46.7%)
- White House official on plans in the event of a rail strike disrupting supply chains
- Most Japanese firms expect USD/JPY under 141 by the end of 2022
- New Zealand Q2 GDP +1.7% q/q (expected +1.0%)
- ICYMI - Fitch Ratings "deep and wide cuts to global GDP forecasts"
- IYCMI - ECB chief economist Lane said interest rate rises ahead will be larger
- China's Chengdu will begin to lift its citywide COVID lockdown today
- NZ finmin Robertson says tighter fiscal policy ahead
- TD forecasts 25bp rate hikes from the Bank of Canada in October, December and January
- US Congress moves a little closer to boosting military/security assistance to Taiwan
- ECB's Holzmann flags more (& more) interest rate rises ahead - adds they're data dependent
- Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 15 September 2022
- Stocks recover higher into the close in an up and down day
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dollar gives some back, but not much
The yen remains the focus after its huge plunge on Tuesday then partial retrace on Wednesday. You’ll recall USD/JPY tested once again towards 145 before being hit with escalated jawboning, most notably from finance minister Suzuki, and then a Bank of Japan ‘rate check’ that prompted thoughts of intervention to come. On Wednesday US time USD/JPY fell back towards 142.50. During the session here it tracked sideways in a broad 142.80/143.20 (and thereabouts) range but moved higher after comments from a senior LDP official (the LDP is the ruling party in Japan) cast doubts on the ability of the Bank of Japan to have any meaningful intervention impact. This may be the truth but it didn’t help prop up the yen, which has been the goal out of Japanese officialdom. USD/JPY has been as high as around 143.50 after the less supportive comments.
On the data front today we had New Zealand Q2 GDP reported well above expected. NZD/USD is higher on the session.
From Australia we had a below expectation (not by much) employment gain and above expectation (again, not by much) unemployment rate. The details of the report were better, and it was not a bad report, just not as good as expected. AUD/USD also gained on the session.
Regional stocks followed up the higher Wall Street close by adding small gains.
Russia is reportedly considering imposing export duties on its coal.
The People’s Bank of China left its medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate unchanged, 400bn of a one-year MLF was issued with 600bn maturing today. Thus a net drain in MLF activity.
