- US traders will return to headlines: China's economy Q4 growth one of the worst on record
- Federal Reserve New York President Williams is speaking Tuesday, 17 January 2023
- Head of National Bureau of Statistics says expects China's economy to improve this year
- Fitch and Moody's both optimistic on China growth ahead
- China says its 2022 GDP growth was 3% - analyst response is: Nope, much lower
- China December economic activity data beats across all 3 indicators
- China Q4 GDP 0.0% q/q (expected -0.8)
- China could cut interest rates and RRR around Q1 - Chinese media report - Securities News
- BoE Gov Bailey's his 3 top dangers facing the UK economy and the inflation outlook.
- Bank of Japan bids to buy 5-10yr to maturity JGBs, unlimited amount
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7222 (vs. estimate at 6.7234)
- BOE made a profit of about £3.8 billion from emergency bond purchases it made last year
- Singapore data: December NODX -3.3% m/m, missing the central estimate of +1.0%
- Nominees for the next Bank of Japan Governor will be made on February 10
- China Q4 GDP and December industrial output (and more) data due today - preview
- Australian monthly consumer confidence data +5% to 84.3
- IMF report on warns that fragmentation of global economy could see -7% hit to global GDP
- Goldman Sachs ask how low could USD/JPY fall if the BOJ exit YCC (spoiler, under 125.00)
- Australia weekly consumer confidence survey rose, still deeply pessimistic at 87.7
- AUD/USD forecast as high at 0.7130
- US Treasury Secretary Yellen will meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on Wednesday
- Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Holiday trading unfolds without any surprises
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday, 17 January 2023
- New Zealand business confidence fell even more in Q4: -70% vs. -42% prior
The Bank of Japan is meeting today, its policy decision will be handed down tomorrow sometime after 0230 GMT (which is 2130 US ET). The Bank intervened in the Japanese Government Bond market yet again today, buying the 10yr JGB. The yield on the 10 year JGB rose above the BOJ’s ceiling at 0.5%.
USD/JPY rose with the BOJ JGB buying, from lows circa 128.25 it hit highs above 129.00. Overnight implied volatility ahead of tomorrow’s meeting has hit a six-year high of 51%. Volatility is assured into and after the BOJ statement.
Other major FX traded in more confined ranges.
The data releases of focus were China’s Q4 GDP:
- this came in better than expected but did show y/y growth was one of the lowest ever recorded (see bullets above for more)
and China’s December economic activity:
- activity data is centred on 3 indicators: industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment. All three came in better than expected (again, see bullets above).
On central banks, the Japanese government said it’d be presenting the names of the nominees for the next BOJ Governor and Deputy Governors to the Diet (the Japanese parliament) on February 10. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda's term expires on April 8 and BOJ policy change is expected after this. It may come sooner, though, given the selling pressure being heaped on Japanese Government Bonds.
China’s Securities News reported that the People’s Bank of China could cut interest rates and the Reserve Requirement Ratio (RR) as soon as this quarter.
Asian equity markets:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 +1.2%
China’s Shanghai Composite -0.25%
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -1.1%
South Korea’s KOSPI -0.5%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 -0.2%
