The jump in yields this week is also helped by a more aggressive market pricing on the ECB outlook, following a record consumer inflation reading.

DE2Y 03-02

The OIS market is now pricing in nearly three rate hikes by the ECB this year and that says a lot about how the market is feeling as compared to what the ECB is selling. There is a major discrepancy in that sense.

Looking ahead to the ECB today, I doubt policymakers will want to stoke the flames and provide affirmation to the latest market moves. If anything, I'd expect a more guarded approach and a communique that will signal that they still see inflation as being contained but perhaps not as what they had predicted it to be.

That might offer some disappointment to the euro and bond sellers later in the day.