- Central scenario is not for a global recession
- But a significant growth slowdown in 2023, as well as still high but declining, inflation
- Europe to be hit the hardest amid the worst energy crisis since the 1970s
- Further tightening of monetary policy is essential to fight inflation
- Sees global growth of 3.1% in 2022, 2.2% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024
- Sees US growth of 1.8% in 2022, 0.5% in 2023, 1.0% in 2024
- Sees Eurozone growth of 3.3% in 2022, 0.5% in 2023, 1.4% in 2024
- Sees UK growth of 4.4% in 2022, -0.4% in 2023, 0.2% in 2024
- Sees Japan growth of 1.6% in 2022, 1.8% in 2023, 0.9% in 2024
- Sees China growth of 3.3% in 2022, 4.6% in 2023, 4.1% in 2024
Considering the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war and surging price pressures across the globe, the outlook presented isn't so much so a surprise. I would argue the only real thing to watch will be whether or not we will see a significant decline in inflation as is currently being pointed out by almost all quarters of the market. If that doesn't come to fruition, pretty much everything else gets thrown out the window.
