Goldman Sachs sees slightly higher summer 2024 peak of Brent $87/b (vs. 85 prior) as Red Sea disruptions have driven larger-than-expected draws in OECD stocks
- Still expects Brent to average $80 in 2025, $5 above forwards
- Says a sustained drop below $70 would likely require much weaker demand and a shift in Saudi strategy
- Expects oil demand to grow 1.5mb/d in 2024, with a downgrade in China on weakness in their Nowcast but upgrades in India and the US
- Expects OPEC+ to extend cuts through 2024q2, and to only
- Gradually and partially phase out the latest package starting in 2024Q3
- Says they still stick to $70-90 range call despite Red Sea escalation
