Goldman Sachs now sees the SNB delivering more easing

Goldman Sachs predicts a 25bps rate cut by March 2025 for SNB due to low inflation, geopolitical tensions, and strong CHF. Possible 50bps move in December with risks tilted towards more easing.

Ryan Paisey

Goldman Sachs now sees the SNB delivering more easing following today's lower than expected inflation data

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GS writes given the SNB's dovish guidance at its September meeting, benign inflation developments, a rise in geopolitical tensions adding further upward pressure to the currency, and Chairman Schlegel's recent comments emphasizing the SNB's commitment to keep CHF appreciation at bay
GS now expects a further cut of 25bps at the March 2025 meeting, to a terminal rate of 0.5%
GS sees risks skewed towards more easing in the event of further downside surprises to inflation and CHF strength, and assigns a 40% probability to a 50bps move in December.