Goldman Sachs on oil, in brief:
- Sees a $90/bbl ceiling in their base case of no geopolitical supply hits, and the risks to their $75-$90 range as modestly to the downside for oil prices
- We expect that healthy consumers and solid summer demand for transportation and cooling will push the oil market in a sizable Q3 deficit of 1.3mb/d
- "We therefore expect Brent to rise to $86/bbl in Q3, and still recommend our OPEC range trade (long Brent Dec24 $80/90 call spread)"
- Keeps 2025 average Brent forecast unchanged at $82/bbl, reflecting that a modest China-driven downgrade of 2024 demand growth to 1¼mb/d roughly offsets a modest 0.1mb/d downgrade to 2024 non-OPEC supply
