Goldman Sachs predicts a 35% probability of further OPEC+ 'insurance' output cuts

Goldman Sachs on the OPEC+ meeting coming up on November 26:

• its statistical model of OPEC decisions suggests that deeper output cuts should not be ruled out
• sees a 35% probability of a deeper cut
• says OPEC+ would see such further cuts as "insurance" against the price of Brent crude falling below their $80/bbl estimate of the OPEC put in Q1

GS cite:

• the fall in speculative positioning and in timespreads
• higher-than-expected inventories

GS may have a point on inventories given this earlier:

• Private oil survey data shows MUCH larger headline crude build than was expected