Goldman Sachs: S&P500 could fall to 3150 (by mid-2023) in the case of a hard landing

A bit of an ICYMI, analysis from Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin:

sees the S&P 500 falling to 3,600 by year-end 2022 in the case of a soft landing, followed by 4,000 level for the end of 2023
but if investors price in hard landing he sees it falling to 3,150 by mid-year 2023, then 3,750 by end-2023

Kostin says his baseline 'soft landing' forecast assumes that yields rise and price to earnings ratios fall to 15x.

For a soft landing he sees S&P EPS rising to $243 at end-2023 from $234 at end-2022
But if the landing is rough he sees EPS falling to $225 at end-2023 from $230 at end 2022.

GS economists see Core PCE falling from 4.9% in August to 2.7% at the end of next year.