Goldman Sachs now expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, November, and December, with a larger 50 basis point cut possible if the August employment report is as weak as July's.
- has increased its estimated probability of a US recession within the next year to 25%, up from 15%, GS citing recent unemployment figures
- maintains that overall recession risk remains limited as the economic data do not look weak overall and the Federal Reserve has ample room to cut interest rates
From the horse's mouth:
We think the slowdown in job growth in the July report likely overstates the decline in the underlying trend, but if the August employment report is also weak and confirms the slowdown in job growth, then a 50bp cut would become likely at the September meeting.
Adam had more on this Friday, ICYMI:
Other analysts and commentators have varying views on the likelihood of a recession and the Fed's response, with some predicting a recession and others expecting the Fed to maintain higher rates for longer.
