- 2024 global GDP unchanged from April at 3.2%
- 2025 boosted to 3.3% from 3.2%
- US GDP 2024 forecast cut to 2.6% from 2.7%, 2025 forecast unchanged at 1.9%
- China 2024 forecast raised to 5.0% from 4.6%
- China 2025 forecast raised to 4.5% from 4.1%
- Eurozone 2024 raised to +0.9% from +0.8%, 2025 unchanged at 1.5%
- Japan 2024 forecast lowered to +0.7% from +0.9%
- IMF says global disinflation momentum is slowing with higher inflation in services prices, brisk nominal wage growth
- IMF chief economist says China needs to restore household confidence, resolve property crisis to boost domestic consumption
This is what the report says about the US:
Growth is expected to slow to 1.9 percent in 2025 as the labor market cools and consumption moderates, with fiscal policy starting to tighten gradually. By the end of 2025, growth is projected to taper to potential, closing the positive output gap.
...
In the United States, after a sustained period of strong outperformance, a sharper-than-expected slowdown in growth reflected moderating consumption and a negative contribution from net trade"
The IMF is upbeat on Canadian growth next year and the UK economy should see a nice acceleration from a low level. Of course, I don't think the market puts much stock into these forecasts.
A more-detailed look at the changes highlights the improvement in China at a time when all the commentary in the market about China is downcast. Note that the third plenum is ongoing and pronouncements there could certainly change the trajectory.
