Initial jobless claims 264K versus 260K estimate

• Prior week 262K revised to 264K
• For the week ending June 17, the initial jobless claims were 264,000, the same as the previous week's revised level, which was revised upwards by 2,000 from 262,000 to 264,000.
• The four-week moving average for initial claims was 255,750, which represents an increase of 8,500 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest this average has been since November 13, 2021, when it was 260,000.
• The previous week's average was revised upwards by 500, from 246,750 to 247,250.
• The continuing claims was 1.2% for the week ending June 10, the same as the previous week's unrevised rate.
• The advance number for continuing claims for the week ending June 10 was 1,759,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised level. The estimate for continuing claims was 1.750M
• The previous week's continuing claims level was revised down by 3,000, from 1,775,000 to 1,772,000.
• The four-week moving average for continuing claims was 1,770,000, a decrease of 7,500 from the previous week's revised average.
• The previous week's average for continuing claims was revised down by 750, from 1,778,250 to 1,777,500.

The initial claims remain elevated, but the continuing claims remain more steady. The steady reading suggests people are being let go, but then finding a job relatively quickly. The continuing claims are reported on a week lag basis, but the initial claims have been at 260+ over 3-weeks now. Below is the chart of continuing claims.

The expectations are for a 71% chance of a hike in July, but only a 19% chance of a 2nd hike by November.

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Dow Industrial Average down -59 points. The NASDAQ is down -26 points in the S&P index is down -6.44 points after the data.