The latest I've seen re polling is from Asahi earlier this week, showing that

  • the ruling LDP could lose up to 50 of its 247 seats in the lower house
  • LDP coalition party Komeito could see its seats fall under 30
  • 233 is needed to govern, the incumbent LDP may fall short of this if polling is accurate and need support from Komeito (LDP is in coalition with K in the upper house) and other parties
  • opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan could win 140 seats

We have some traders reading ForexLive in Japan who are better informed than me on Japanese politics. I'm sure they'll rake me over the coals with corrections ;-)

While we wait for them to stumble out of all-night sake-drinking parties here is a link to a Reuters preview for more:

Ishiba
Ishiba

Japan PM