JPMorgan says the US earnings season has been strong, but the wheel may turn for worse soon. JPM analysts see three key drivers that could indicate that corporate profitability is headed lower from here
1. Firms were able to benefit from a lower net interest expense this economic cycle, after H1 2024 this is set to normalize.
2. Strong COVID-induced pricing power drove topline for companies, but expects earnings to slide as the producer price index turns negative.
3. 2023's U.S. economic activity won't continue as strong this year - unit labor costs could pick up and thus"turn into more of a headwind”
JPM says that these 3 combined means we "might end up with a disappointing profits outcome even without seeing an outright recession, and we note that 2024 EPS projections keep coming down in key regions.”
