In case you missed his remarks:
- Powell: Ultimate level of interest rates likely to be higher than previously anticipated
- Powell Q&A: The inflation we have now doesn't have much to do with the supply chain
Essentially, Powell left the door open for a 50 bps move later this month and that was enough for markets to run with that narrative. The pricing for a 50 bps move was sitting just below 30% going into the main event yesterday, but soared to as high as 66% in the aftermath.
There's not much time left for Fed policymakers to try and guide markets in the right direction ahead of the blackout period - which begins on Saturday - so you can't blame traders for taking this as a nod that such pricing is Powell-approved.
That said, it is going to be a minefield in the next week with every single US data point up until the FOMC meeting going to be rather crucial. That begins with the ADP employment report today before the non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
Adding to that will be the second day of Powell's testimony later but it is usually the case that his remarks will be a repeat of yesterday. But it is definitely one to keep an eye out for just in case.
The broader market reaction yesterday was rather interesting. The dollar soared and broke a couple of key technical levels on the charts (I'll get to that later) while equities slumped. Those are what you would expect. However, in the bond market, the short-end sold off as yields jumped on higher rate expectations but the long-end was bid.
It looks to me that there are some mixed thoughts on the higher rates for longer view in the market, with the long-end pricing in fears of a deeper recession i.e. not so much a soft landing.
And that is where we are left as we get stuck into trading today.