- Prior Michigan sentiment 63.5
- Consumer sentiment 57.7 versus 63.5 estimate. Weakest since November of last year.
- Current conditions 64.5 versus 67.0 estimate. Lowest since December of last year
- Expectations 53.4 versus 59.8 estimate. Weakest since July of last year.
- 1-year inflation 4.5% vs 4.6% last month
- 5-year inflation 3.2% vs 3.0% last month. Highest since 2011
Sentiment comes in much lower than expectations and is at the lowest level going back to November 2022. The inflation data was mixed with the one year coming down but the five-year moving higher (and highest level since 2011).
Stocks are moving lower. Yields are marginally higher.
The EURUSD is moving higher and looks toward 1.9000 (USD lower). The GBPUSD is bouncing higher as well with the pair back above the 1.2500 level after moving to a low of 1.24905.
The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) is a widely-followed economic indicator that measures the overall level of consumer confidence and optimism in the United States, focusing specifically on the state of Michigan. It is published monthly by the University of Michigan's Survey Research Center as part of the Surveys of Consumers. The index is based on a survey of approximately 500 households, who are asked about their current financial situation, as well as their expectations for the future in terms of personal finances, the economy, and purchasing plans.
The MCSI is important because it reflects the consumer sentiment, which is a significant component of the U.S. economy. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP ), and a positive or negative sentiment can directly influence spending behavior. As a result, the index is considered a leading indicator of consumer behavior and can signal future economic trends.
Investors, businesses, and policymakers closely monitor the MCSI to gauge the health of the economy and make informed decisions. A high consumer sentiment index usually suggests that consumers are more confident about their financial situation and the economy, which can lead to increased spending, economic growth, and potential upward pressure on interest rates. Conversely, a low index can indicate decreased consumer confidence, potentially resulting in reduced spending, economic slowdown, and lower interest rates.