I posted last week on Goldman Sachs projecting Brent crude averaging $100 a barrel from October to December
- and $108 a barrel in 2023.
- Down from a prior of $125 for both time periods
A little further from the note:
Lower Chinese demand in particular will weigh on oil prices
- GS expects China's reopening from zero-COVID policies won't happen until next summer, leaving 2023 oil demand flat compared to the fourth quarter of this year.
Goldman remains bullish overall
- sees the recent "investor exodus" that priced in a large recession for crude to be overdone: "we believe that the decline in oil prices has overshot the downside risks to global oil demand."
GS cite supply side issues that'll support price:
- investment, spare production capacity, and inventories all low
- Biden administration's releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will stop this autumn
- European Union's embargo on seaborne Russian oil imports will kick in by December
