Morgan Stanley are forecasting EUR/USD to 1.03, warn of an overshoot to parity

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Morgan Stanley Research:

• "We expect EUR/USD to continue softening in the near term, falling to 1.03 by 3Q22 and perhaps even overshooting to parity as concerns about local geopolitics and commodities intensify meaningfully further," MS notes.
• "However, we expect EUR/USD to begin rebounding modestly in 4Q22and into 2023, with upside driven by reduced fixed income outflows and a weaker USD on the one hand, but limited by continued geopolitical risk premium, relatively tepid growth numbers, and low relative local returns on the other hand. Further optimism on EU integration and an accelerated ECB normalization could bring EUR/USD toward our bull case of 1.14, while sub-expectations growth may keep EUR/USD under 1.10," MS adds.