The monthly New York Fed survey on inflation expectations shows:

  • 1 year inflation expectations falls to 4.4% from 4.7% in March
  • 3 year inflation expectations rises to 2.9% from 2.8% last month
  • 5 year inflation expectations rises to 2.6% from 2.5% last month

In other surveyed measures:

  • Expected home price gains jumps to 2.5% which is the highest since July 2022
  • 1 year ahead expected earnings growth unchanged at 3.0%
  • Household spending expectations of falls to 5.2% in April from 5.7% last month. The fall is the weakest since September 2021
  • Credit access perceptions were mixed in April
  • Consumers expect gas prices to rise 5.1% (vs 4.6% last month) and food prices to increase 5.8% (vs 5.9% last month) over the next year.
  • Unemployment outlook worsened, with a 41.8% likelihood of a higher unemployment rate in a year. That is an increase of 1.1% from last month.