ANZ's traffic measure is used as an indicator of how the economy is performing.
ANZ remarks:
Both the Light and Heavy Traffic Indexes fell in the month of June
The Heavy Traffic Index has dipped below trend:
- We'd primarily put this down to supply-side challenges, but demand is also set to fall as the Reserve Bank’s inflation-fighting efforts kick in. That’s a story for later in the year.
- The small fall in GDP in the March quarter was all about supply constraints –firms couldn’t find workers, and many of the ones they did have were sick or isolating.
- And we suspect those supply-side themes have persisted into the June quarter.
- On the plus side, that suggests lost activity can to some extent be made up later. But on the downside, it does mean that it can’t be assumed at present that anaemic growth is going to lower capacity and cost pressures – rather, it might reflect them.
Variation in light traffic (motorbikes, cars and vans) is a good indicator of consumers’ willingness to spend, as opposed to production.
- light traffic is holding up well– the June decline just takes it back to trend
