Economists widely estimated that US non-farm payrolls would be revised lower from the prior numbers showing 2.9 million jobs added in the year ending in March, or 242,000 per month. Goldman Sachs had floated a range of 600K-1M job losses.
This would put the monthly average at 174K, a decline of 68K jobs per month.
One critical caveat is that these revisions are based on a reconciliation with initial jobless claims, which don't include illegal immigrants. Given the surge in border crossings, the non-farm payrolls numbers may be a better measure of actual job creation, because they aim to capture all hiring, including illegal immigrants.
This release was a mess as it was out more than 30 minutes later than expected and there were all kinds of rumours, including this one which was out way ahead of time.
I detailed the rumours and reports here.
In any case, the percentage revision to employment is 0.5%. The bulk of the losses were in professional and business services.
- Professional and business services sector sees whopping 358K cut
- Leisure and hospitality down 150K, manufacturing loses 115K
- Some silver linings: Health/education adds 87K, transportation up 56.4K
- Government employment essentially unchanged (+1K)
