Among registered voters, GOP Trump holds a 48% to 46% lead over Dem Harris.
The key here is "registered" voters. You would expect that if a registered Democrat or registered Republican, you are probably back in your own camp.
Prior to Biden stepping out of the race, GOP Trump probably had some of the registered voters switching over.
The difference will be the independent voters especially in the swing states.
The list of those swing states include:
- Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)
- Michigan (16 votes)
- Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes)
- Georgia (16 electoral votes)
- Arizona (11 votes)
And maybe
- North Carolina (it is likely Trump)
That's it. Those 73 electoral votes will swing the election to GOP Trump or Dem Harris. If there are other states that go one way or the other, that candidate probably wins.
What is better is polls from the above states.
Bookmark this page: https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/
Looking at the recent polls for that state, the picture is in favor of Trump, but those seem to be against Biden. What will it look like vs Dem Harris?.
