WTI crude oil is down 45-cents to $80.89 ahead of the EIA weekly oil inventory data at the bottom of the hour. Oil prices spike to $82.43 earlier after the API report showed a massive 15.4 million barrel draw.
The consensus on the EIA data is:
- Crude -1367K
- Gasoline -1300K
- Distillates +112K
- Refinery utilization 0% change
API data released late yesterday:
- Crude -15400K
- Gasoline -1680K
- Distillates -512K
It's safe to say that the market is priced for larger draws than the 'consensus' but there's plenty going on in the background, including broad USD strength after a hot ADP print. There were also rumors of a huge draw so there could be some profit taking at work. Finally, technical sellers will note the importance of $83.53, which was the April high. Given the one-way trade since early July, there could be some profit taking underway.
