Philadelphia Fed current and future activity index
- Philadelphia Fed business index versus -10.0 estimate. Last month -19.4
- employment -1.8 versus 7.1 last month
- prices paid 26.4 versus 35.3 last month
- Prices received 24.3 versus vs 34.6 last month
- new orders -25.8 versus -16.2 last month
- shipments -6.2 versus 7.0 last month
- unfilled orders -14.7 versus -22.9 last month
- delivery times -11.9 versus -8.8 last month
- inventories -2.7 versus -6.5 last month
- average employee work week -8.9 versus 1.4 last month
six-month forward measures
- business activity 3.8 versus -7.1 last month
- capital expenditures 18.0 versus 6.4 last month
- new orders 13.6 versus -4.8 last month
- employment 18.4 versus 11.1 last month
- shipments 22.5 versus 10.2 last month
- prices paid 39.22 versus 18.5 last month
- prices received 32.7 verse 15.7 last month
- average work week -0.7 versus -12.1 last month
Inflation readings are lower currently, but six-month forward price expectations moved higher. Growth is slower with new orders falling to -25.8 and shipments also going negative at -6.2.
From the Philadelphia Fed:
- The survey’s broad indicators for current activity were all negative. The firms on balance also reported a decline in employment. The future indicators improved,suggesting that the firms expect overall growth over the next six months.
- The index is activity index of -13.8 was the fourth consecutive negative reading in sixth negative reading in the past seven months
- the employment index dipped into negative territory for the first time since June 2020 with 19% of firms reporting declines in employment and 17% reporting increases. 64% reported steady employment
- the prices paid index fell to the lowest reading since September 2020 and is near its long-run average
- the six-month forward business activity returned to positive territory which is its first since May
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