Putin the wolf of gas meme

This is an important comment. Putin hasn't taken this off the table but the nightmare short-term scenario would be that if they cut off gas to Europe.

  • Sanctions on Russia are not legitimate
  • The west is trying to blame Russia for its own mistakes (on the US banning Russian oil)
  • Notes that US inflation is rising
  • We don't intend to break off any relations ourselves

These are important comments. There was a tail risk that Russia would halt oil and gas exports to 'unfriendly' nations but Putin appears to be reluctant to do that (though he's left himself some wiggle room).

  • We have agreements with friendly countries on fertilizers
  • On fertilizer markets: If the west creates problems for Russia, then there will be inevitable negative consequences for world markets
  • We don't want to see price rises on Russian food
  • Fertilizer prices could rise further
  • Russia decided to temporarily suspend fertilizer exports