Vladimir Putin doesn't have many supporters in the world, but he does have nuclear weapons.
It's clear that the initial plan from the global community was a harsh set of banking sanctions that didn't include SWIFT, the central bank or oil & gas. Militarily, the initial approach was largely hands-off and in many cases, explicitly hands off.
In just a week, those rules have been ripped up. Russia's financial system has been crushed.
Russia has faced stiff resistance and Ukraine has won the public relations war. The result has been ratcheting pressure on politicians everywhere to do more to punish Russia and Putin. That pendulum continues to swing and I don't know where it ends.
Ukraine is pushing for a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Today, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman advocated for sending in US troops.
Putin has responded by putting his nuclear forces on high alert.
So far the US has resolutely and clearly said it won't be intervening militarily. Putin warned at the outset that interference from the west would lead to "such consequences that you have never encountered in your history."
Whoever
tries to hinder us, and even more so, to create threats to our country,
to our people, should know that Russia's response will be immediate.
And it will lead you to such consequences that you have never
encountered in your history,
the Russian president said.
Where exactly is that line? Germany this weekend pledged to send Javelin missiles and Stinger air-defense missiles. The EU is in talks to send fighters as well.
Russia's foreign minister said today that those supplying lethal weapons to Ukraine will bear responsibility should those weapons be used during Russia's military operations.
At home, sanctions are ratcheting up on Russian oligarchs -- no doubt in the hope that they'll work to oust Putin.
US Senator Marco Rubio has lately become an invaluable source of insight. He's been relaying information -- likely due to his seat on the US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence -- and it paints a bleak picture.
He later clarified exactly what those risks were:
He went onto say that it's a mistake to view Putin's nuclear warnings as posturing and that Russian military doctrine calls for escalation of force if they find themselves losing a conventional war.
He also said this:
What scares me about this is that as the clock ticked down to the invasion, Rubio was entirely correct on what was coming next, almost down to the minute. Since the bombs have been falling, he's provided intelligence as the attacks were unfolding, in detail. This is clearly someone who has real sources.
His latest tweets suggest that Putin has ordered a siege of Kyiv, cutting the city off from food, fuel, power, communications and supplies.
"We need to start thinking about what we can and are willing to do to prevent such a barbaric crime," he said.
There is a non-zero chance of nuclear war here. It would be wonderful to oust Putin from Russia but not at the cost of a nuclear holocaust.
I'll repeat the axiom I wrote on the weekend. What do you do on reports of nuclear war? You buy the dip because if it's not true, you will make a haul. And if it is true, money doesn't matter anyway.
All that said, I'd much rather not be in a position to have to make that decision.
