GBPUSD W1 22-04

The pound is failing to find much reprieve on the day as we are seeing a firm technical break below 1.3000 against the dollar.

A more sluggish risk mood hasn't been friendly for the pound these days as the currency has been acting like one that is high beta, such as the aussie and kiwi. Today is no exception to that. And when you throw in a rather dismal UK retail sales report, it just piles on the misery and that seems to be enough to trigger the downside break in cable.

The pair is now down over 100 pips to 1.2920 with the low touching 1.2907. So, what's next?

From a technical perspective, there isn't much standing in the way of a steeper drop with the 50.0 retracement level of the swing higher from March 2020 to February 2021 standing @ 1.2830. That is the next key level to watch before we get to the 1.2700 level and then the September 2020 low @ 1.2675.

Looking over to the fundamental standpoint, the Fed seems to be more comfortable in acting aggressively to tighten policy and even though the BOE did act first, they are lacking a follow through (or at least are seemingly hesitant) based on their last policy meeting here.

With the usual suspects still likely to play out in the next two weeks, there might not be much relief for sterling for the time being.