TD Securities has projected a 180k increase in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for August, exceeding the consensus expectation of 168k. The bank also forecasts the unemployment rate to remain stable at 3.5%, aligning with the general consensus. According to TD, wage growth is likely to register at 0.3% month-on-month and 4.3% year-on-year.
Key Points:
NFP Expectations: TD Securities anticipates that NFP will clock in at 180k for August, a number that would maintain the recent downtrend in the three-month pace unless there are significant revisions. The projection is higher than the general consensus, which stands at 168k.
Unemployment Rate: TD concurs with the consensus that the unemployment rate will stay at 3.5%. This follows two consecutive months of decline in the unemployment rate and suggests a stable job market.
Wage Growth: On the earnings front, TD forecasts a month-on-month wage growth of 0.3%, translating to a year-on-year increase of 4.3%. If accurate, this would signify a strong labor market not just in terms of job additions but also wage improvements.
Conclusion:
While the NFP increase is expected to stay below the 200k mark, TD Securities believes the August print could potentially exceed consensus expectations. The stability in the unemployment rate and positive outlook for wage growth further indicate that the labor market remains robust. These factors could play a critical role in shaping monetary policy and market sentiment in the coming months.
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