The best day of the year for stocks delivers again. At least for now.

I've written many times that Fed day is the single best day of the year to own stocks. The data is inarguable over the last 20 years and Bespoke underscored that today, even in a hiking cycle.

The S&P 500 is up 1.3% and the Nasdaq up 2.5%.

I would warn that there has been at least one nasty reversal of a rally on the day after the FOMC decision, so there are no freebies. I tend to think this one will come down to what the Fed says.

But right now the market is about 50/50 for another 75 bps in September (assuming 75 bps today). That seems way too high for me. I suspect they'll pivot to more of a wait-and-see stance.