"The People's Republics of Donbas have asked for our help. ... I have decided to launch a special military operation. ... We will seek to demilitarize and de-nazify Ukraine," Putin said in his address to the nation.
That says it all.
My base case was that this was all about separatists in Donbas but US intelligence was right. This sounds like a full-scale invasion to 'demilitarize Ukraine'.
Putin added this, "to anyone who would consider interfering from the outside: if you do, you will face consequences greater than any you have faced in history. All relevant decisions have been taken. I hope you hear me."
What's even more shocking than what appears to be the start of a full-scale war is how little movement there is in the FX market and commodities. I would expect the yen to be ripping higher and oil to be up much more than $2. At this point, I supposed it's prudent to wait for air strikes but as I write this there are reports of explosions in Kiev.
I expect some huge market moves on this in the day ahead. Buying the yen, to me, is the absolute most straight-forward trade here, particularly versus the commodity currencies and GBP.
