The @Newsquawk NFP Preview: Looking for 250k payroll additions (vs 315k in August)
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Summary:
The headline rate of payrolls growth is expected to resume cooling in September, with the consensus looking for 250k payroll additions (vs 315k in August); the jobless rate is seen unchanged at 3.7%, and there will also be focus on the participation rate after a welcome rise in August. Wage growth is expected to continue, although the annual rate is expected to cool a touch.
Traders will be framing the data in the context of Fed policy; there are building hopes that the central bank might relent on some of its hawkishness if its policy tightening gives rise to financial stability concerns as it moves policy further into restrictive territory – these concerns could be exacerbated by soft economic data, as seen this week after the release of the Manufacturing ISM and JOLTs data, which fuelled bets that the Fed would not be as aggressive with rate hikes ahead.