As we approach the end of Q3, there are signs of stability in shipping. CIBC highlights three indicators released in the past week that point to a potential floor in the beaten-up freight sector.
1) The American Trucking Associations' (ATA) Report:
- The Truck Tonnage Index, which measures truck shipments, went up by 0.2% in August after a 1.1% rise in July.
- ATA commented that there is growing evidence tonnage hit bottom in April and continues its slow climb upwards.
2) Cass Shipments Data:
- The Cass Shipments Index increased by 1.9% in August.
- Cass still highlights a soft environment but the survey noted that there has been significant progress made in rebalancing the freight market.
Spot U.S. Van Shipping Rates:
- The rates, from DAT, have been stable since May around the mid-US$1.50 per mile mark.
- Cass's own metric, the Truckload Linehaul Index, has seen a slower decline over the past three months, averaging a drop of 0.3% per month, which is better than the average 1.4% monthly drop from the previous year.
- Cass notes this likely reflects a combination of stabilizing spot rates and smaller declines in contract rates
It might be a slow recovery in this sector but the goods recession might have found a bottom.