Risk trades are faring better to start the week but it is still too early to draw much conclusions. Russia-Ukraine tensions are still in the spotlight and that continues to drive market sentiment for the most part.
For equities, I'd argue that there are other issues to consider - notably inflation and central bank tightening prospects. US futures may be higher now but the charts are less than convincing if you ask me. So, I'm not in a hurry to try and call for any big turn just yet.
In that lieu, also just be aware that we still have two weeks (this week and next) of potential Fedspeak before the FOMC blackout period. That will make for an interesting set of dynamics in gauging whether or not we will see a 50 bps move in March.
The situation between Russia and Ukraine is still the big thing to watch and the plays I'm looking for are yen pairs and gold - depending on how the headlines play out. I'm leaning more towards tensions subsiding but you can never really tell with these things.
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