A judge today set the trial date for former President Donald Trump for May 20, 2024.
That creates the possibility that Trump could be going on trial as the presumptive Republican candidate for President. The primaries will largely wrap up on March 12 and the Republican national convention is schedule for July 15-18. The trial would fall in between those dates, and that's later than the earlier assumed date of March 25.
Next year will be a crazy one for politics and this will certainly add to it, along with recent reports (from Trump himself) that he could be soon facing Jan 6 charges.
PredictIt has Trump currently with a healthy lead over Republican rivals.
Beyond that, the economy will play a large part in which party wins the election next November.