- Pennsylvania: Trump +3 (59% of votes in)
- Wisconsin: Trump +1.6 (55% of votes in)
The other key one under the Rust Belt is Michigan but the state has so far only counted 25% of votes. It is also Trump favoured at +0.6 now but with every percentage, that seems to swing around between Trump and Harris. So, I wouldn't look too much into that yet.
Overall, the big picture is playing out as it should. Trump is doing well in the Sun Belt states and is looking odds on with pollsters perhaps underestimating his support. That being said, it all still comes down to what will happen with the three key states under the Rust Belt as mentioned above. And that is arguably still a toss up so early in the night.