UBS forecasts for economic growth in China:
- expects a weaker Q4 GDP for 2022 (UBS citing the rising number of COVID-19 cases), and for the full year expects +2.7% from 3.1% previously
- upgraded 2023 outlook to 4.9%, from 4.5% previously (citing earlier & faster reopening)
From the note:
- the Central Economic Work Conference will likely make stabilizing growth a priority, with supportive macro policies for 2023
- expect that fiscal policy will stay proactive
- expect a small increase of headline deficit
- expect new special local government bonds, monetary and credit policy to keep supportive
- continued ample liquidity but unlikely any additional policy rate cut
