Seeking Alpha (gated) with the info from a note from UBS on oil, expects Brent to recover into an $85-90/ bbl range over the coming months.
The note is a good summary of the mix of factors at play.
On demand and the recent slide in price:
- recession fears in the US, ongoing ceasefire hopes in Gaza have lowered crude's risk premium
- weak Chinese crude imports and refinery activity in July sparked fears of poor Chinese oil demand
On supply:
- US crude production growth is slowing down
- declining US drilling activity doesn't suggest an acceleration in supply growth in the near term
- OPEC+ is likely to stick to its cautious approach when adding back supply
Oil update:
