A UBS note from Sunday on the weekend's events on Russia (links below ICYMI).
UBS says the coup attempt "appears over as soon as it began, there will be questions and suppositions about what all of this means for days and weeks to come".
As for crude oil impact:
- "Given that Russia is a major oil producer and exporter, we expect this uncertainty to be supportive of oil prices in the near term”
- although the price effect will be seen in “the form of a risk-premium for future barrels as there are no indications of disruptions to production or exports at this time"
A snippet too via Barclays:
- it'd be unsurprising if markets “largely ignore” the events
- “While the short-lived Russian insurrection dominated weekend headlines, we think the market impact is limited, and macro factors are likely to remain the main drivers of risk assets”
But, Barclays do add that what happened may signal that Russia appears more unstable than thought. There is reason for markets to focus on what the weekend events mean for the war on Ukraine.
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Earlier:
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From the weekend:
- Prigozhin to leave for Belarus, case against him to be dropped
- Prigozhin says convoys returning to bases
- A full-scale mutiny is under way in Russia
- Russia accuses Wagner boss of armed mutiny. Tanks in the streets in Moscow
